Category Archives: Market Trends

What is the Real Estate Forecast for 2011?

Posted on January 8, 2011 | Leave a comment

Foreclosure?The media covers the real estate market with an eye to creating headlines to capture reader attention. So what is the real story?

The banks have just had their hands slapped for foreclosing on perhaps thousands of properties with out the proper documentation. A Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court ruling on the “Ibanez” case declared the two bank, Wells Fargo and U S Bancorp, improperly foreclosed on these two homes because they could not prove the owned the mortgages at the time of foreclosure. This may have a significant effect on thousand of people who have already purchased homes, especially if they did not purchase title insurance for themselves.

Some economists believe that we will not see a rebound in prices for a while, and there will be some regional variations in local markets.    The Boston Market Forecast

 Robert Shiller is the Yale professor who created the closely watched Case-Shiller Home Price Indices.  He has a great interactive map which demonstrates the percentage changes with Moody Analytics forecasting what the real estate market for the various cities will look like.  The Price Indices does indicate that the prices seen at the high of the market in 2005 will not be seen until 2015.  Some people have decided to wait for their equity to return, so they will have quite a while to wait.   

Real Estate TV NewsMany economists believe that over the next 12 to 24 months as many as 60% of the regions will see some appreciation in house pricing, but not at a very rapid rate, as the interactive map indicates.  All this being said, the economy  is improving;  there is more confidence in future; interest rates will not stay this low forever; it is time to think about buying or building you new home.  Visit our Real Estate TV for the latest mortgage interest rate news.  Real estate new is updated every week.

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Posted in Economics, First Time Home Buyers, Foreclosure, Market Trends, Mortgages, Real Estate Market Trends

Strong Rebound in October Pending Housing

Posted on December 8, 2010 | Leave a comment

The National Association of REALTORS® reports that pending home sales jumped in October, showing the first positive uptrend since bottoming in June, when the tax credit expired.

Sold Homes

The PENDING HOME SALES INDEX, which is based on contracts signed but not yet closed, rose 10.4 % in October, but they were 20.5% below a year ago, when the tax cuts were first set to expire. . In the Northeast, the index jumped 19.6 & in October, but was 27.3 % below a year ago.

Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, says homebuyers are taking advantage of strong affordability conditions and expects home sales to continue to rise. That is the good news.

Although the housing market is in the recovery phase, we have a long way to go to have secure stabiliation.  Banks need to cooperate with a more commen sense approach to the very stringent lending requirements they have implemented since the mortgage meltdown.

Mortgage Application

We now have some consumer concerns regarding the mortgage interest deduction, an important component in housing affordability,” Yun said. “Preliminary results of a new survey show nearly three out of four home owners and two out of three renters consider the mortgage interest deduction to be extremely or very important to them.  Home owners already pay between 80% and 90% of all federal income taxes and additional tax burden would hurt them and the economic recovery, so we have a reasonable hope that it will not be changed.”

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Posted in Economics, Home Sales in Massachusetts, Market Trends, Mortgages, Real Estate Market Trends

Making Sense Out of the Current Homeowner Debate

Posted on September 23, 2010 | Leave a comment

Who do we believe? Time magazine’s Making a Case Against Homeownership or Wall Street Journal’s 10 Reasons to Buy a Home?

TIME magazine has declared it is time to “Rethink Homeownership” because the housing market continues to be troubled.   Making the Case Against Homeownership is an opportunity for TIME to sell more magazines, because people are hungry for answers and the public is hearing many conflicting things.   When the media sensationalizes the reporting to “make headlines”, it forfeits its objective journalistic position in hopes for attention and the opportunity to sell magazines.

The economy is in flux and one week we read it is on the mend and we have been in recovery for 18 months.   The next week we are told that there will be a double dip in the housing market and the stock market is going to be in trouble again.   The intractable job market continues to be a serious area of concern.

The Boston job market seems to be making some progress in recovery, because that unemployment rate is 8% compared to the US rate of 9.5%.   Unfortunately, the unemployment rate in Worcester is 9.6% and in Springfield it is 9.8%, both over the national rate of 9.5%.   Review the data in my Housing Trends Newsletter about other locations in the state.   This presents a very confusing picture.

The Wall St. Journal is taking a stand against the doom and gloom that has pervaded the news lately. Their article – 10 Reasons to Buy a Home – points out why now is a very good time to purchase.   Owning your own home is still the American Dream for many people.   Low prices, good inventory, and great interest rates are just a few points that make the case to buy now, not later.   But it is also important to buy a house to really make it your home, not your investment portfolio.   A home is where you plant roots, enjoy your family, and participate in your community.   We must not look at the home as a place to refinance to pull money out to pay bills, buy luxuries, or take trips.

The recent Case Shiller Report released on August 31, 2010, notes that nationally home prices dropped 29% from a high in 2006.   The good news is that instead of treading at the 2001 price level, which we saw happening in Central Massachusetts in 2009, we are now approaching the fall 2003 price range in some parts of the country.   Stability in the housing market is important to creating stability throughout the economic markets. We may have a long way to go, but the Time article is reminiscent of the Chicken Little days of “The sky is falling, the sky is falling.”    It is not healthy to believe the gloom and doom.   As my mother always said, “This too shall pass.”  Better days are ahead.

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Posted in Economics, Home Sales in Massachusetts, Market Trends, Real Estate Market Trends

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Fannie Mae’s Seven Year Penalty

Posted on July 1, 2010 | Leave a comment

If you are a homeowner who is upside down on your mortgage, you may be considering walking away from this situation.  If you are capable of paying your mortgage, this may be a very bad idea.

Fannie Mae has set guidelines to penalize homeowners who walk away from their underwater mortgages, when they have the capacity to continue to pay them. Fannie Mae is expecting homeowners to work in good faith with their lenders to find an alternative solution, including a loan modification, a short sale, or a deed in lieu of foreclosure.

If the borrower does not participate in an alternative workout, Fannie Mae may penalize the borrower for up to seven years before they would qualify for a Fannie Mae approved mortgage. In certain states, Fannie Mae could go after other assets to satisfy the delinquency.

If the borrower has extenuating circumstances, like a job loss, and they work with their service provider to secure an alternative solution, they may be qualified for another mortgage within two to three years.  This is very good news for troubled borrowers.

The Fannie Mae Selling Guidelines will be in force on July 1.  The Eligibility Matrix can help analyze the situation of a borrower.

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Posted in Economics, Foreclosure, Market Trends, Mortgages, Short sales

Real Estate Trends in Sterling MA

Posted on May 10, 2010 | Leave a comment

 

Real estate has been on a roller coaster ride for over five years now. The Sterling Real Estate Market Statistics Chart demonstrates that the highest number of homes sold in recent years was 2004 when we sold 95 homes. In 2009 we sold just 49 homes.

Interestingly enough, the median selling price continued to rise for two more years when the highest median price in Sterling was $400,000 in 2006. The lack of inventory was part of the cause, but many people failed to see warning signs of the overheated market. The median sale price for 2009 was $291,000, and the lost value in homes has hit many people very hard. Even Sterling has had its share of short sales and foreclosures.

Our Annual Sales Trends Report , which we send to our clients on a quarterly basis, helps folks keep abreast of the fast changing real estate market. This report shows the listing and sales activity of many of the local communities.

Our Local Market Conditions Report is a monthly on the current real estate trends in Sterling. Just a couple of weeks ago, there were only 50 homes for sale in Sterling and 17 homes sold in the previous 6 months. Today there are 77 homes on the market, which may be indicative of the spring market. There are 3 homes under agreement and 24 homes sold in the last 6 months. Each time a home sells gives Realtors a different perspective on the changing market. It is one of the reasons we track these trends so closely, and many people appreciate having a better idea what their home is worth.

Bookmark our blog, Massachusetts Real Estate Trends and check for frequent updates.

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Posted in Buyers, Economics, Home Sales in Massachusetts, Market Trends, Real Estate Market Trends, Uncategorized

Will a Short Sale Be the Best Decision for the Long Term?

Posted on March 15, 2010 | Leave a comment

When someone is unable to refinance their mortgage and unable to pay their mortgage for any reason, it can feel like everything is against you.  Information can be very confusing, and no one seems to have good answers.  Even some attorneys and financial consultants don’t have the right answers.

Bankruptcy attorneys have suggested to me that a short sale, once negotiated, may be the best solution for a difficult situation.  The credit bureaus do not view a short sale like a foreclosure, which can show up on a credit report as a strong negative for 7 to 10 years.    Some of the banks are taking one to three years to complete the foreclosure, and if the foreclosure is mishandled, it could be even longer.  The real problem is that process is up to the bank, not the borrower.

Rebuilding credit and making timely payments will start as soon as the short sale is complete.   Making the decision to do a short sale may be difficult, but the results will give people a jump start on a new financial life.

The administration has created a reasonable way to deal with the short sale issues. The new program is called the Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternative (HAFA), and it will make a big difference to people who need to get out from under crushing debt.  The clear deadlines and parameters will make a short sale much easier for both the sellers and the buyers.  The guidelines incorporate mandatory deadlines for the offer to acceptance and then a reasonable time for closing.  The buyer will have time to have a home inspection and get a bank commitment.

The most important date for homeowners is the 14 day response time once the bank makes an offer for a short sale.  Homeowners RESPOND within the 14 days, and you will have adequate time to sell your home through the short sale process.  There are also financial incentives for the homeowners to cover relocation costs and fees to banks to make this program work.  If the homeowner qualifies, the bank will fully release any future liability for the first mortgage debt.  There are several ways to deal with a second mortgage, so call if you have a second mortgage for additional information.

The banks and mortgage companies that participated in the Home Affordable Mortgage Program must offer this solution to their borrowers.   If you have any questions about this program, contact a Realtor who has had special training in Loss Mitigation Certification or Short Sale Designation.  They will help you figure out this process.

If you would like a brochure about the HAFA program, make a comment with your email.

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Posted in Economics, Home Sales in Massachusetts, Market Trends, Mortgages, Real Estate Market Trends, Short sales, Uncategorized

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WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO THE SPRING REAL ESTATE MARKET IN CENTRAL MASS?

Posted on January 11, 2010 | Leave a comment

The Real Estate Monitor is a research arm of the National Association of Realtors and takes a snap shot to predict the economy over the next quarter.  There appear to be some bright spots in the economy, but the pace of recover will be slower than most people want.

Although the number of homes sold fell in December, this should have been expected.  The deadline for the first $8,000 tax credit was November 30, 2009, and many people stopped looking for homes, when they felt they had missed their opportunity.

Now that the government has extended the tax credits through April 30, 2010, with a closing date by June 30, 2010, we should see a good upturn in sales.  With the first time buyer getting the $8,000 tax credit and the move up buyer qualifying for a $6,500 tax credit, we should see a good spring market.  The interest rates are holding at a very competitive level.  The only thing that could derail a very busy spring will be the possible lack of inventory.  Back in January 2008 there were almost 90 homes in sale in Sterling.   Today in January 2010 there are 45 houses for sale.  A real dilemma for potential buyers!

Many people may not be able to put their homes on the market, because they will not be able to sell them for what they owe.  For these folks, it may be best to hold on to the house until the market turns around, but this may take a number of years.

Some people believe the price of homes will be better soon, and they want to wait to make a better profit on their homes.  If you want to make a move, waiting may not be the best decision.  If you sell your home now, and with the tax credits possible in both directions, you will have the benefit of saving money on the purchase of your new home and get an interest rate significantly lower than rates projected for our future.

With rates being held down by the Fed, future affordability of homes could be in question.  Some of us remember the mortgage rates at 18% to 19% in the early 80’s, and the real estate market was in the dumps.  The pent up demand in 1982 – 83 when rates were a “bargain” at 15% was something to experience.

The Federal Reserve Report for Boston gives a powerful analysis for economy in the short term.   In the final analysis, if you have an interest in selling your home in a reasonable amount of time, this spring may be your time, and you should be ready to do this within the next month.  The Spring Market is NOW.

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Posted in Economics, First Time Home Buyers, Home Sales in Massachusetts, Market Trends, Real Estate Market Trends, Uncategorized

RECENT ECONOMIC NEWS

Posted on April 2, 2009 | Leave a comment

The economic “crisis” with continued bad news may actually be blocking the recovery of the housing sector. The government has been “throwing money” at a myriad of problems, hoping this will provide a solution. In fact, the economy will recover in its own time, and the throwing of money at complex problems without careful analysis by economically knowledgeable experts may, in fact, make the recovery a longer process.

The real estate market in the small towns in Central Massachusetts and near Boston has started a slow recover already. Inventories are down substantially from the 2008 levels. The people who have been waiting on the side lines are getting ready to make a move. The $8,000 first-time home buyer credit will help move those buyers into the marketplace.

The National Builders Association proposal of a $15,000 credit for all buyers would have given a much better and bigger push to bring stabilization to the housing market. Massachusetts has reached a 50 year low for new construction, and the construction job losses are devastating.

See a forecast for 2009.  If you need further information, please email me.

Sterling Market Snap Shot:

There are 44 homes on the market at the present time in Sterling with the average list price of $436,000 and an average days on market of 338. In the last 6 months, 19 homes sold for an average price of $303,000.

Taking into consideration that 19 homes sold in the last 6 months with days on the market of 184 days, Sterling has a 14 month supply of inventory. A normal market would be 6 to 7 months of inventory.

Buyers should definitely take advantage of the very low interest rates and great pricing and purchase now. The special financing options, including the $8,000 federal tax credit for new purchases, are abundant now. This is a strong buyer’s market with the interest rates drifting below 5%.

For a review of other communities, see my Market Condition Report on Realty Times. 

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Posted in Buyers, First Time Home Buyers, Market Trends, Real Estate Market Trends, Uncategorized

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Restructuring Help for Troubled Homeowners

Posted on January 19, 2009 | Leave a comment

Chase Bank has taken a very valuable step in dealing with the prevention of foreclosures with the mortgages they service.  This very important step could go a long way to keeping homeowners in their homes.  This, in turn, will help put a stop to falling property values.  The entire economic situation in this country, and even worldwide, has ties to the real value of property in the United States. 

 

When homes do not support the mortgage amounts, the crisis we create will affect the world economy.  Chase has taken steps to create a department with regional offices to work with homeowners to restructure their loans, keep them in their homes with payments they can afford, and prevent more foreclosures from coming on the market.  They have provided specialized training to 300 new loan counselors to work with their homeowners and their troubled assets.  Chase will be opening branch offices around the country to expedite this process.

 

This is outstanding news for Realtors who have been trying to help homeowners avoid foreclosure, either through short sales or restructuring.   Frequently, the banks and/or the loss mitigation departments don’t understand the local real estate situation and miss the opportunity to rectify the problem to the benefit of both the homeowner and the bank. 

 

Many Realtors in Massachusetts have taken and been certified Loss Mitigation Specialists, and this special training will provide homeowners with a great resource to help find answers to their mortgage problems. 

 

Now we need to get the word out to homeowners.  Chase has taken the first step, and we hope that the other banks and mortgage servicing organizations do the same.   

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Posted in Market Trends, Real Estate Market Trends, Uncategorized

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The NAR Forecast for Economic Growth

Posted on December 16, 2008 | 3 Comments

The following chart gives a projected forecast for housing sales, housing starts, and economic growth.  Growth will be difficult for the first quarter of 2009, but if the new president makes good decisions, growth will return and we will make a reasonable recovery.

Our biggest concern will be the fear generated by the pundits and media looking for headlines.  Cool heads will lead us through this difficult time.

NAR Forecast from 2003 to 2010

NAR Forecast from 2003 to 2010

Since business spending will lag behind consumer spending, consumer confidence will be important to our recovery.  The real estate market in Central Massachusetts is showing signs of bottoming out and some recovery.  Inventory is down and prices are attractive.  The severe ice storm and resulting damage will slow activity during the holiday season, but with interest rates coming down, the market should pick up after the first of the year.

The National Association of Realtors used extensive historical data to create the forecasts.  This economic downturn is similar to the downturn after Black Monday in October 1987 and the price correction in real estate has been similar.  The real initial slow down in activity in the market began in the fall of 2004 to 2005, similar to the 1987 to 1989 time frame.  We hit the bottom of the price correction in 1991 with prices returning to 1987 levels in 1996.  In today’s market recovery in the number of sales will take place much sooner than the price recovery.

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Posted in Market Trends, New Housing Forecast, Real Estate Market Trends, Uncategorized

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